Point of view of analist

Article 1. Coming season: the kings and suite.

Only one month remains before the beginning of the new season, and it`s time to discuss, what fcan we expect from this season, and what`s current arrangement of forces in the world biathlon? Who will win the World cup and who can make surprises? We shall start with men.

Favorites: Rafael Poiree (France), Ole Einar Bjoerndalen (Norway)

Pretenders: Lars Berger (Norway), Ricco Gross (Germany), Halvard Hanevold (Norway)

Dark  horses: Frode Andresen (Norway), Vladimir Dratchev (Belorus), Pavel Rostovtsev (Russia), Tomasz Sikora (Poland)

Favorites are the same, magnificent kings: the King of Oberhof French Poiree, and the King of Salt Leik Bjoerndalen. Practically last ten years their rivalry decorates all biathlon races, and each of them equally can apply for a rank of the most successful biathlete of a boundary of 20-th and 21-th centuries. Last season has passed under obvious dictation of the French. His self-reliance, stable shooting and magnificent speed on a cross country make him practically undefeatable. Rafael has all chances to repeat last year's success in a present season. Only psychological instability, lack of motivation and certainly the main competitor from Norway can prevent him. Trumps of Bjoerndalen are fighting character, speed, charismatic personality and composure on the last shooting line which repeatedly brought him victories. Last season was heaviest for fivefold Olimpic champion, but knowing character of Ole Einar it is impossible to doubt, that he will return his usual level and then contenders will be tremble. It is possible with probability not less than 80 % to approve, that one of this pair will take the Cup. Nevertheless both athletes have stepped over a 30-years and consequently their hegemony can not last eternally. So we shall try, having glanced for the wide backs of great champions assume who can press them in the present and the future.

Lars Berger is certainly the first who came back to memory. Norwegian is extraordinary fast, strong physically and, the main thing, is young. He needs  only one thing - stable shooting to come on top this season, and but it  frequently let down Lars. If  he will manage to learn to shoot - he can become the new king of biathlon if he won`t - stay second Frode Andresen and can expect for success only in the cross country skiing championship .We can`t dismiss not so young, but stably included in elite of biathlon Ricco Gross and Halvard Hanevold. German especially well compete on the world championships, but traditionally weak in the beginning of a season. Usually it does not allow him to expect more than a 3-rd place in the general classification. As for Hanvold it is seems he has already reached the apogee and it`s unlikely to expect growth of results in a present season .

It`s also very interesting will fortune faced to Frode Andresen or Norwegian interestingly will turn or he will not gain any big victory in the career? Can fadeless Vladimir Dratchev again surprise his fans as well as last season? Whether it will be possible for double world champion Pavel Rostovtsev to leave the crisis and again reach victories? How much progress can reach Pole Tomasz Sikora?

Perhaps only these sportsmen should play leading roles in performance with an unpredictable plot named the World cup. And certainly we shall wait for surprises from talented youth: Russians Phillip Shulman and Nikolay Krouglov, Norwegian Stian Ekhoff and Germans Andreas Birnbacher and Michael Rosch.

Now I offer to finish a narration about men and to proceed to a fine half of biathlon community, Competitions of women in forthcoming season is expected even more fascinating and unpredictable.

Favourites: Liv Grete Poiree (Norway), Olga Pyleva (Russia), Sandrine Bailly (France)

Pretenders: Uschi Disl (Germany), Martina Glagow (Germany), Anna Bogali (Russia)

Dark horses: Albina Akhatoava (Russia), Simone Denkinger (Germany), Natalia Guseva (Russia)

The Queen of last season Liv Grete Poiree at first sight is a unconditional favorite. Four golds in last World championship and a victory in the general classification of the Cup confirms it. But everything isn`t so simple as on the first sight: behind a Norwegian there is a lot of strong arrogant and young competitors who progress each year. And Poiree does hasn`t stable shooting and only fine phisical conditions allows her to take top above competitors. One of them is Russian Olympic champion 2002 and the world champion 2004 Olga Pyleva. Olga concerns to that rare number of sportsmen, who can do on a identical high level both shooting and running. Despite victories come to her not so frequently, but the end of the last season and general stability of results allow to estimate her chances not much lower than Liv Grete`s chanses. Also we can`t forget about Sandrine Bailly  from France which was in the lead of general classification in the beginning of the last season and showed serious resistance to queen of biathlon Poiree. Lack of experience has not allowed her to keep the fine form up to the end of a season, but I would not advise her opponents to expect that in a new season the French with her coach will not draw correct conclusions.

The plot of female biathlon is those, that the winner of the Cup of the world can be a biathlete not from the above mentioned trio. Good sprinter Ursula Disl more than ten years ago entered a biathlon elite but she still can`t reach the Cup. Her compatriot Martina Glagow who already owned the crystal globe in 2003 is not less dangerous. But the year after she could not fix the success and failed the season. However her work on a ski, done in inter-season period allows to expect, that she approach to the world leaders in this weak factor for her. Certainly we should consider as a favourite Anna Bogali who has made the main progress in the last season. Biathlete from Murmansk has gained the first victories and more than once showed fighting character on a skiing race. If she will manage to achieve stability which  undoubtedly will come to her with experience, it is possible already in this season she will bring a long-awaited World cup to Russia.

We shouldn`t dismiss also triumphers of before last season Albina Akhatova, Silvie Baecart and Katerina Dafovska. The`s so much changes last years in female biathlon that we can expect surprises from new persons who are not getting up in top 10 of the general classification, such as German Simone Denkinger and Russian Natalia Guseva. Also we can expect surprises of someone of Norwegian team, because their team was 1-st in realy at last World championship, not only because of Liv Grete Poiree.

In general it is possible to assume as much as we want, but we`ll receive answers to the questions put above only in March.